Attacks and counterattacks in most areas were limited by the Russian “operational pause” and the reports of emerging missile shortages.
In his first interview with a British newspaper since the invasion began, Oleksii Reznikov said President Zelensky had ordered Ukraine’s military to retake occupied coastal areas which are vital to the country’s economy
Nothing special, just the beautiful landscape from #MiG29 pic.twitter.com/6XQbi8BOiz
#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar A Russian AWACS A-50 reconnaissance aircraft is now on duty in the sky over Belarus, which can be used to aim missiles at air and ground targets. A-50 arrived there last night along with two Il-76 heavy transporters. pic.twitter.com/okBwkxCxbP
South of occupied Izyum, in the direction of Mazanivka, Ukrainian defenders defeated combat reconnaissance by the Russian fascist invaders. The rashists retreated with losses. –General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information as of 18:00 on 10 July 2022 pic.twitter.com/MksnK1ZRry
(continued)… Russian terrorists shelled Ivano-Dar'ivka, Shumy and Pereizne settlements with barrel and rocket artillery. They used aviation to carry out a strike near Bohorodychne.#RussiaIsATerroristState pic.twitter.com/87mRUzTQAj
Ukraine’s 40th Artillery Brigade hit Russian military hardware in Kharkiv Oblast.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/DDt5u3pU4F
pic.twitter.com/h18UHKthpA
The Russian military is finally quite convinced that, in this big war, the Russian Army is on the losing end. The Ukrainian Army is a completely mobilized, with the best weaponry NATO can provide & Russia is suffering heavy losses from the NATO weaponry. https://t.co/NRO4utW5Tl
A long thread rom Michael Bond:
We received more detail on previously announced UK drones being delivered to Ukrainehttps://t.co/KfeYiiOyw6
“Skibitsky noted that 105 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are taking part in the war in Ukraine and that Russian reserve capabilities could increase this number to anywhere between 150 and 160 BTGs but did not specify a timeframe for this mobilization.”
Institute for the Study of War
Here is the recent history of Russian BTG counts in Ukraine
There are regularly articles written that spell out the challenges facing those fighting for Ukraine both at the strategic and tactical levels. Here is a sampling
Interviewing a foreign fighter about battles in Severodonetsk
Rob Lee on new Ukrainian challenges now that they are attacking on some fronts
However, there are more positive assessments. US defense officials note that Ukraine is in better defensive positions
Retired general Mick Ryan writes about understanding Russian goals in an effort to develop plans to counter them
Kamil Galeev writes about how, in his opinion, the unequal distribution of economic consequences of the war within Russia will doom it in a long war
Attacks on Ammo Depots There have been so many attacks on Russian ammunition depots that to keep them straight it is easier to list daily strike locations. Today’s list:
Therefore, maps like this one quickly fall out of date
Phillips O’Brien wrote about how these attacks seemed to be very systematic and they may be tied to other efforts to disrupt rail resupply ties
Professor O’Brien also noted the apparent reduction in volumes of artillery fire from Russia and the increasingly deep strikes being conducted by the Ukrainians as reflected in satellite mapping of evidence of fires
The impact of these strikes has the potential to be significant, as estimates of the volume of Russian artillery fire ranges from tens of thousands of rounds per day, up to this estimate from Ukrainian advisor Arestovych of 45k artillery shells per day
As Trent Telenko notes in this detailed thread, these developments considerably change the back of the envelope math previously applied to Russian logistics and makes their situation much more difficult
While discussing logistics, I also note this serious blow via destruction of a large number of Russian supply vehicles, which are becoming more and more important
Through translations of critical blog posts by several Russian military observers, we see that concern over these attacks on ammo depots is shared Roman Saponkov
Satellite photo comparison of strike location
This week, there were videos captured of several missile launches, of a variety of missile types and from both land based and ship based missiles, apparently failing. Missile failure on a launch from a ship
Could this indicate poor storage or reliance on older munitions?
There were also several videos produced of Russian led forces using and transporting Tochka-u missile systems that Russia has claimed to retire. Video of Tochka use by Russian PMCs
There were also reports of apparent failures of S-400 air defense systems to intercept presumed HIMARS strikes and even a report that an S-400 was directly destroyed in such a strike
There were also claims that S-300 air defense missiles have been used in surface to surface strikes
While it has been noted that this mode of use has been previously tested, there is doubt about its usefulness against ground targets
Partisan Resistance Further to previous reports of increasing partisan resistance, there were several attacks noted this week: This attack resulted in light damage to the train, none to the tracks pravda.com.ua/news/2022/07/9… Sabotage of rail line video
In another attack, partisans reportedly blew up a railway bridge near occupied Lyubimivka
While it is not known if it is destined for railroad repair in Ukraine, several train loads of Prefab rail lines were spotted being moved along the Russian side of the Ukrainian border
As a result, Russian is publishing videos of counter insurgency efforts
Russian industry is still producing fighter aircraft, in this case for export sale
In personal equipment we see: Russia using old soviet helmets
Russian soldiers marveling at the superiority of Ukrainian equipment
Advance limited by numbers of UAVs to laze targets for PGMs
We continue to see Russia relying on crowdsourced gear
Chinese scopes on Russian machine guns may be among the privately funded equipment
It is also reported that individual Russians are also donating to Ukrainian crowdfunding efforts and suffering the consequences from authorities, including fines and arrests
This increase is partly based on reports that Ukraine now has several companies made up of captured tanks
Lysychansk – however, as this thread makes clear, most of these are previous captures now being displayed and not new captures in Lysychansk
Why are things abandoned and capable of being captured? Well, Ukraine will destroy equipment that they must abandon
However, some vehicles are abandoned in places where they are believed that they can be recovered. Sometimes the other side will make it a point to get there first, as in this example of capture of an abandoned tank in disputed territory
New Equipment for Ukraine For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer… Here is another helpful collection of the data ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga…
Here is the list of the value of the drawdowns of US military aid as of a week ago
Interestingly, in a recent video a Ukrainian defense official argued against seeking former Soviet equipment in Africa and Asia
and more UK artillery is on the way
Ukrainian advisor Arestovych notes that weapons factories in some NATO countries are now working 3 or 4 shifts to increase production
Artillery and MLRS Danilov stated that Ukraine had 9 HIMARS (however, only 4 were known to be in country with 4 more on the way at the time. His comments may have included some m270). Four more were included in this week’s US commitment, for a total of 12
While Ukrainian advisor Arestovych previously said he believed the west side of the Dniepr near Kherson could be recaptured with just 5 HIMARS, here is what the coverage of the eastern front line would look like with 13 units
Despite Russian claims, the US says no HIMARS destroyed
While HIMARS are being used to very good effect (as per the discussion of attacks on ammo depots above) Russian adaptations to HIMARS in process
Spartans from the UK arrived in Ukraine
a promotional video for Mastiffs from the UK was produced upon their arrival
I don’t know how to reconcile these US claims with reports from the ground that ammunition can be in seriously short supply, for example as included here
However, a Ukrainian defense official reported an informal remark that Ukraine had passed the test on HIMARS precision leading to speculation that eventual provision of the long range ATACMS ammunition was more likely
Germany also secured a supply of Gepard ammo from a Norwegian manufacturer, clearing the way for Germany to consider delivering these eventually
There was a brief mystery as some claimed mortar rounds were sent by Taiwan
Taiwan officials said they did not provide them
and they were ultimately traced as Japanese manufactured bombs supplied by the US
Drones, Planes and Missiles The Lithuanian purchased Bayraktar TB-2 was briefly put on public display and then transferred to Ukraine
We received more detail on previously announced UK drones being delivered to Ukraine
Various home made drone innovations were shown, including a launcher
and an even simpler drone loading mechanisms
Ukrainian advisor Arestovych hinted that Ukraine had ‘something new’ to recently improve its ability to intercept missiles. It is not believed that the recently announced NASAMs air defense systems from the US are in Ukraine yet
Russia has focused efforts on attacking Ukrainian logistics capacity in the past several weeks, but these efforts have repeatedly failed to stop the flow of military aid. Tragically, infrastructure damage in occupied territory is much more common
It is the Russians who seem to be afraid of attacks on infrastructure, employing a reflective barge near the bridge over the Kerch strait to dazzle missile guidance systems
and practicing drills to obscure the bridge in smoke
This is an interesting article with additional detail on this training
In a video interview, a Ukrainian defense official noted: Retraining crews on western tanks is possible, but it would take valuable time
The value of training via combat
A Ukrainian defense official gave several insights: Tank repairs are conducted well behind the front lines, as personnel and repair equipment are too valuable to risk
Ukrainian tanks repaired out of country at 20-30/month
This same official claims that there are only 3 tank repair plants left in Russia
We got insight into Russian repair facilities at two sites: